Heating oil prices have surged significantly over the past three days. The primary reasons for this increase are the rising crude oil prices and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate hike. Brent crude oil is now trading just below the $80 per barrel mark.
On Thursday, the ECB implemented its first interest rate cut since 2019, leading analysts to expect that the US Federal Reserve might follow suit. Lower interest rates typically increase the demand for oil.
On Friday morning, heating oil dealers in Germany raised their prices by between 0.8 and 1.5 euros per 100 liters, depending on the region and federal state. This means that heating oil prices have risen by nearly 3 euros within three days. However, in many federal states and regions, heating oil still costs less than 93 euros per 100 liters (see the chart below).
Given the rising prices, the willingness of heating oil customers to make purchases has noticeably decreased, according to dealers and analysts. Most market observers had recently recommended buying and filling tanks. Now, the market has turned again. Currently, significantly fewer heating oil buyers than at the beginning of the week believe that prices will fall again.
At the heating oil specialist esyoil, 74% of customers expect another price drop. Three days ago, this figure was still at 90%, which is 16 percentage points higher than on Tuesday.
On Friday morning, the average price of heating oil in Germany was 94.7 euros per 100 liters, according to data from esyoil. The regional price range has widened slightly again.
Today, heating oil customers in North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, and Rhineland-Palatinate can buy heating oil at the lowest prices, ranging between 93.5 and 94.3 euros per 100 liters. Even cheaper is heating oil currently in the metropolitan regions of Frankfurt at 91.6 euros and Düsseldorf at 92.4 euros.
